Ebook Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, by William Poundstone
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Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, by William Poundstone
Ebook Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, by William Poundstone
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Review
“Seldom have true crime and smart math been blended together so engagingly.†―The Wall Street Journal“An amazing story that gives a big idea the needed star treatment . . . Fortune's Formula will appeal to readers of such books as Peter L. Bernstein's Against the Gods, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, and Roger Lowenstein's When Genius Failed. All try to explain why smart people take stupid risks. Poundstone goes them one better by showing how hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, for one, could have avoided disaster by following the Kelly method.†―Business Week (four stars)“'Fortune's Formula' may be the world's first history book, gambling primer, mathematics text, economics manual, personal finance guide and joke book in a single volume. Poundstone comes across as the best college professor you ever hand, someone who can turn almost any technical topic into an entertaining and zesty lecture.†―The New York Times Book Review
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About the Author
William Poundstone is the bestselling author of several nonfiction books, including Labyrinths of Reason and The Recursive Universe.
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Product details
Paperback: 386 pages
Publisher: Hill and Wang; 1st edition (September 19, 2006)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9780809045990
ISBN-13: 978-0809045990
ASIN: 0809045990
Product Dimensions:
5.6 x 1.1 x 8.3 inches
Shipping Weight: 13.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.3 out of 5 stars
166 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#55,703 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
It's hard to describe what this book is. Is it a primer on betting strategies? A look at practical math? A history of mathematically inclined gamblers? A "mob" story? A manual for cash management in investing?The book has facets of each, though in the end, the main takeaway is the superiority of the Kelly system for managing bankrolls whether gambling or investing.For the most part, it is an interesting read though there are sections that bog down. I'd recommend the book as an interesting historical look at some people who tried to beat the house - in gambling or investing - and as a primer on the Kelly method but I wouldn't suggest that anyone head to Vegas or Wall St. with their kid's college savings based on this book.
Excellent book. Solid explanations of both the Kelly formula and its historical context with Ed Thorp, Claude Shannon, etc.Only quibble is there is not quite enough math in it. One gets the feeling that author Poundstone wanted to leave out the math, so as not to intimidate the non-mathematical reader, but by doing that he doesn't provide enough details on the Kelly formula. Had to go online and read some articles about the formula to understand it. That information should have been in the book.
This a fascinating history book. The author is a great writer. The history of how people (try) to make money gambling and in the stock market. And why it is so hard.All sorts of famous people and scientists who worked on ways to beat the systems. Some succeeded.Also fascinating facts about Rudy Guliani, Michael Milken, Ivan Boesky and others.I could not put it down. A great book.
Amazing book that breaks down the Kelly Criterion and all of the past mathematical equations and other weirdness that helped him establish it. The book is chocked full of good stories and explanations but it's drawn out with stories that in my opinion are based solely off of people's ego instead of there lack of understanding.I would still recommend this book but I would google "Kelly Criterion" for some background information about what in Christ's name you're actually reading about.
This book talks about the fundamentals about logic, information and probability. It talks a lot about Claude Shannon's story which is very attractive to me. And then it discusses the generation of information theory and the essence of it. As a scientific researcher in a very much related field (operations research), I find the discussion precise and accurate. It also talks about the story about several other important figures in the development of information theory, such as Kelly, Thorpe etc. In particular, it includes the debate over the celebrated Kelly's formula. This is the best book I have ever read on the topic of Kelly's formula. And it really explains it well. I will recommend this book to any person who is interested in information theory or computer science (or any related field).
Great book, keeps attention. All the stories are hilarious, and got the Kelly criterion lesson from this book- with some tweaking, as everyone does, it has brought losses down and gains up. Shannon and Thorp are the rare examples to read about, like the Tesla's and Einsteins of the world...
"Fortune's formula" is the author's cute name for what mathematicians call the Kelly criterion. Much of the book is entertaining episodic anecdotal history of characters like Shannon, Kelly, Thorp, Milken, Boesky and Long Term Capital Management. The formula-free discussion of mathematical aspects of the Kelly criterion is rather good (to my taste as a professional mathematician). Entertaining account of dispute between the proponents of Kelly (math types) and economists led by Samuelson who viewed it as too risky even in the long run. Memorable slogan: 100% Kelly strategy marks the boundary between aggressive and insane investing.To lecture briefly ..... in a hypothetical gambling or investment situation where you have a range of choices to bet on/invest in, and where you know the correct probability and profit/loss from each possible outcome, the Kelly criterion tells you how to split your investment between the different choices. The point of the formula is to take into account the fact that (when investing all your money) a 20% gain one year followed by a 20% loss next year works out as a 4% loss, not zero. Its use in splitting beween risky and safe investments is uncontroversial. People get emotional about the "efficient market hypothesis" that you cannot assess probabilities for future stock prices more accurately than the consensus probabilities reflected in current prices; but this is an empirical question, like asking "can you beat Tiger Woods at golf", and of course has the same answer for most people. Poundstone conveys such concepts pretty well.
You could say that I have been an Ed Thorp fan for almost 15 years. I haven't met the man personally, but I have benefited a lot from his willingness to share his thoughts on risk management and more. He appears frequently this book, because of his application of the Kelly criterion and his work with Claude Shannon who popularized it in the context of investing.You can learn a lot from this fun read. The math isn't too involved for general audiences. On the other hand, Mr. Poundstone is very capable with technical topics and I assure you he could have treated the math more in depth. What makes his writing so great is that he provides context and a fun way to learn the ideas with enough substance from the research that you can use it as a bibliography to begin serious research.
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